My gloomy view of the economy

I am not an economist. The market is telling me that US might have dodged a severe recession. According to my humble common sense, I can not believe it.

The 3.3% GDP growth of US in the first half of 2008 was supported by two factors: stimulate checks and strong exporting. The former helped retailers to meet their lowered sales target. But it is gone. We will have a clearer picture of US consumers in the 2nd half of this year, especially the Christmas season, when the shock of high heating bill hits people. The strong export made up most of the "surprise" of the GDP number.What's the picture outside US? Japan just checked in the "Hotel of R" and many Europe countries,such German and UK, have booked their room on priceline.com. As a significant portion of US export are technology, I can not convince myself how it will hold its head above water, when Japan and Europe are drowning. The growth in emerging market might provide some cushion for US export, but slowing US consumer might eventually hit the emerging countries.

So, here is my gloomy outlook. There might the first time in the recent history that all three major economies (US, Europe and Japan)are in the recession at the same time. The slowing global economy will eventually drag on emerging markets. However, as my emerging markets, China and oil producing countries, have sufficient foreign reserve and healthy trade surplus, they might get back to the growth earlier by trading between themselves.

Let me know what do you think!